[Socialism Today, No 27, April 1998, p. 4-5]
The Serbian army onslaught in the area of Srbica [Skenderaj], central Kosovo [Kosova], left over 80 Kosovo Albanians dead and villages in ruins. Civilians, including young children, were mercilessly shot down and whole so-called ‘terrorist’ families executed. Up to 45,000 Serbian troops now occupy Kosovo, with armoured personnel carriers and attack helicopters.
The 1990s has already witnessed the bloody break-up of Yugoslavia and conflicts between Croat, Serb and Muslim right-wing forces for territory and resources. Now the theatre of conflict has reached Kosovo, the brutally subjugated southern ‘province’ of the rump Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY – Serbia and its junior partner Montenegro).
Ever since Serbian strongman Slobodan Milošević stripped Kosovo of ‘autonomous’ rights in 1989 – closing Albanian language schools and colleges, and sacking thousands of Albanian state sector workers – a conflict has been brewing in the area, which is over 90% Albanian. The emergence of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK) as a force over the last couple of years, the increased marginalisation of ‘moderate’ Albanian leaders, recent mass demonstrations of up to 300,000 demanding self-determination, and the Serbian atrocities, all indicate that the Rubicon has been crossed.
Mass movements for democratic rights, and even insurrections, punctuated by drawn out armed Serb and Albanian conflict are all likely developments.
Mass movements for democratic rights, and even insurrections, punctuated by drawn out armed Serb and Albanian conflict are all likely developments. Conflict can spread to neighbouring Macedonia which has a 20% Albanian population. Bulgaria, Serbia, Albania and Greece, all of whom have designs on Macedonia, could be pulled into the maelstrom. The active involvement of Greece could provoke conflict with their fellow NATO member and old enemy, Turkey.
Ancient historical animosities have been stirred up anew in the recent Kosovo crisis. Both Serbs and Albanians claim the area is their ancestral homeland and give it different names. However, the seeds of the present crisis lie in the recent past, with the economic stagnation and collapse of the old bureaucratically-run Stalinist Yugoslavia in the 1970s and 1980s.
The national-based Stalinist elites of ex-Yugoslavia, as they turned towards the market economy and made a grab for territory and resources, consciously whipped up reactionary nationalist moods amongst the mass of people. The ending of Kosovo autonomy marked the beginning of ‘Greater Serbia’ ambitions by Milošević.
After 1989 a ‘parallel state’ was established to run healthcare, education and much of the daily lives of Kosovo’s Albanians. The Serb state maintained police and army control and increased repression. A galloping mood for independence has been the political consequence. In the early 1990s a referendum organised by Kosovo Albanians overwhelmingly found in favour of independence and an ‘illegal’ parliament was established. Until recently the ‘Gandhi-style’ policies of its President, Ibrahim Rugova, held sway over most Albanians but he has been undermined by dead-end negotiations with Belgrade.
Many youth are now turning towards the UÇK in desperation. The UÇK has carried out attacks on Serbian military and alleged informers. Killings of Serb civilians, who make up less than 10% of the Kosovo population, only goes to fuel ethnic tensions and drives Serbs into the hands of Milošević. In other rural areas the UÇK appear to be trying to develop a guerrilla struggle. Their policies and programme remain unclear, outside of expelling Serbian forces. Other Kosovo Albanian parties openly advocate the free market and want to develop capitalism on the basis of more favourable terms with Belgrade or as an independent state. They will not hesitate to use the most reactionary, right-wing nationalist ideas in order to secure the best position for themselves. Under their rule, the people of Kosovo would remain impoverished, their democratic rights denied and minorities would be brutally scapegoated.
The main world capitalist powers dread the consequences of the present crisis. They fear moves towards independence and a ‘Greater Albania’, linking up Albania proper, the Macedonian Albanians and Kosovo. This in turn would drag in other countries and lead to an explosive re-mapping of the Balkans. The fragile Dayton Agreement, which holds the Bosnian ethnic entities together through NATO and UN threats and bribes, could fall apart. A new period of conflict and instability would convulse the region.
For these reasons the main powers oppose the right of self-determination in Kosovo. The big powers want to impose their own settlement: Milošević to grant some limited form of Kosovo ‘autonomy’. However, the Contact Group (Britain, France, Germany, US, Italy and Russia), established to oversee the Dayton Accord, is divided on the way forward. The pro-Belgrade Russians grudgingly agreed to sanctions and an arms embargo against Serbia at a March emergency meeting but rejected cutting financial credits. The US hope ‘self-rule’ for Kosovo within the FRY will head-off demands for independence. To enforce such a plan would probably require a substantial NATO/UN troop deployment on the ground, turning Kosovo into a virtual protectorate. Already, it is likely that UN troops. stationed in Macedonia will be bolstered rather than withdrawn in August, as previously agreed.
Neighbouring states, like Albania, are mounting military manoeuvres, preparing for the worst and the execution of their own national aims, while desperately hoping the conflagration can be contained. Officials from Macedonia, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey have called for ‘the respect of present borders’ and for a ‘peaceful resolution’ in Kosovo.
Milošević, who in recent months was becoming ‘pro-Dayton’ in order to end sanctions and to win capitalist investment, might be prepared to negotiate. However, he is constrained by the vile nationalism he helped create. His main contender, Vojislav Šešelj, an extreme racist and war-monger, nearly won last year’s Serbian presidential elections. Any sign of retreat by Milošević will be exploited by Šešelj, and should he replace Milošević, all-out conflict in Kosovo could be immediately posed. Milošević may therefore maintain a belligerent position and aim to overcome many of the sanctions through covert markets. In the meantime nothing fundamental is resolved for the Kosovo Albanians.
Imperialist forces will not be able to solve the problems of Kosovo, any more than they have been able to do in the Middle East, but would actually act as a coercive force against the democratic demands of Kosovo Albanians.
Demands by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of the parallel Kosovo government for NATO to send in a ‘peacekeeping’ force have been echoed by some in the recent big Albanian demonstrations in the region and further afield. However, imperialist forces will not be able to solve the problems of Kosovo, any more than they have been able to do in the Middle East, but would actually act as a coercive force against the democratic demands of Kosovo Albanians.
Socialists support the right of the people of Kosovo to self-determination and to have their own independent state. Under capitalism, however, neither autonomy nor an independent Kosovo would be a solution, for new border disputes and conflicts would develop. A clear working-class leadership for the Kosovo masses is the only way forward, with workers’ self-defence, democratically controlled, essential in the face of Milošević’s aggression. A call to the mass of Serbians to resist Milošević and his gangster-capitalist backers would help develop a powerful class alternative in Serbia to the war-mongers. Only a Kosovo run by and for working-class people could ensure democratic rights, including those for minorities, and a lasting solution to the national question. A voluntary and equal confederation of democratic, socialist Balkan states, with full rights for minorities, is the only answer to endless conflict in the region.
Niall Mulholland.
Schreibe einen Kommentar