[My own translation of the Russian text. Correction by Russian or English native speakers would be extremely welcome]
This book is a collection of speeches and articles relating to issues of international politics in recent months. The internal coherence of the parts of the book is given by the character of the ‘compromising’ historical chapter into which we entered with the coming to power of the ‘Labour Party’ in England, the Left Bloc in France, etc. This new period begins with the defeat of the German revolution at the end of 1923. The end of this compromising period can be either a new revolutionary upsurge or an open return to power of imperialist reaction. These alternative possibilities are by no means necessarily mutually exclusive: A new revolutionary upswing can and will even inevitably bring about a political regroupment of the bourgeoisie – to the right. Which of these combinations of governments will emerge depends on the moment in which the current temporary revolutionary ebb turns into a new surge, and on the speed of this surge. The fundamental elements of this question are analysed in the final chapter ‘What stage are we going through?’.
The question of forecasting (predicting the paths of further development) remains. However, it cannot be done meaningfully if we remain exclusively within the framework of the West (Europe) and the East (Asia) without taking into account the role of the United States of North America – because under the current conditions this would mean that we are trying to reckon without the host.
This basic fact must be well understood: the United States is the master of the situation because it is immeasurably richer than Europe and the whole world. In the near future, the economic power of the transatlantic republic will have an impact not only on the international situation, but also on internal relations in Europe. With interruptions and reversals, the policy of the United States is directed towards the ‘appeasement’ of Europe on the way to its complete subjugation to the hegemony of American capital. European social democracy is now striving for this as its highest ideal. In this sense, European Menshevism is increasingly transforming itself into the political agent of Anglo-Saxon, i.e. ultimately American, capital. The course of the compromising chapter in the development of Europe will depend to a large extent on how successful – and whether it is successful at all – the transformation of capitalist Europe into a special type of American dominion will be. We are devoting a special work to this question, which we have not yet included in this pamphlet.
The political axis of the pamphlet is the struggle between the Second and the Third International – whether it is a question of the West, the East or America which is only touched on episodically in this work. The Second International, which adapts, changes or rather repaints itself, remains the main conservative force in history. With it, capitalism holds on and with it it falls, at least in Europe. The Third International, which is forcing its way through all obstacles, will come and lead the European proletariat to revolution. Without proletarian revolution there is no salvation for Europe. Without the victory of the proletariat in Europe there can be no complete liberation of the East. These two processes nourish and complement each other.
Leon Trotsky.
15 July 1924.
Р.S.: The ‘Appendix’ contains extracts from speeches and articles in which the author of this pamphlet has had to speak over the last three years of the likelihood of the beginning of a new ‘compromising’ current in Europe and to motivate this prediction.
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