[Socialism Today, No 12, October 1996, p. 8-9]
‘The war is over!’ claimed Alexander Lebed, Russia’s security chief, as he emerged from talks with Chechen fighters’ leader, Aslan Maskhadov, on August 31. But had a formula really been found to end 20 months of savage fighting over Chechen independence?
All federal combat troops were to be withdrawn from Chechnya by 1 October. A Russian/Chechen Commission would be set up to monitor troop withdrawals, tackle crime, and devise an economic recovery plan. A decision on Chechen independence, the ‘casus belli’, was postponed to the year 2001. Who will run the country in the meantime was left open.
How can either side of this gruelling war, in which ceasefire after ceasefire has collapsed, agree to settle on these terms? If they do, it is because of a vast ‘war weariness’ on both sides. As Lebed bluntly put it, for Moscow the war had become ‘unwinnable’. More accurately, the Russian government, besieged with demands on its severely depleted exchequer, could not risk, financially or politically, continuing an already extremely unpopular war.
Days after his re-election in July, Boris Yeltsin repudiated the generous promises he had made to numerous sections of the community. In September, power-workers in the far east not paid since April, were joined on strike by tens of thousands of others – in schools, transport, and defence. Nearer to Moscow, angry pensioners blocked the giant Kaluga bridge across the Volga. Intractable social problems are weighing more heavily on Yeltsin’s shaky administration than a loss of face over Chechnya.
There are of course generals and officials who resent Lebed’s ‘interference’. Also prime minister Chernomyrdin and chief of the president’s staff, Anatoly Chubais, who were both decidedly ‘dovish’ on the war before the president was re-elected, have been reluctant to greet the settlement with enthusiasm for fear of enhancing Lebed’s bid to succeed Yeltsin. But, according to one senior Russian general, most of the army backed Lebed’s deal. “Let those who want the war to continue,” he said, “go out there and fight. We are tired of dying”. (Financial Times, 5 September).
“The Chechen fighters retook Grozny with ease, killing 500 Russian troops”
Around the time of Yeltsin’s inauguration in early August, the ‘rebel’ forces were able to retake Grozny with comparative ease. As many as 500 Russian troops were killed. Had Moscow already decided to call it a day? Lebed had described the soldiers as ill-nourished, louse-ridden and poorly equipped. A US defence expert, writing in the Wall Street Journal (28 August), comments that the best Russian airborne, tank and motor rifle units were not being used in the conflict. There was a distinct ‘lack of motivation’ even among the generals. As they saw it, the power struggle going on in Moscow was determining not only the timing of battles but even their outcome.
There were jubilant scenes in Chechnya at the prospect of an end to the horrific blood-letting. Bedraggled Russian troops were ‘escorted’ out of the battle zones by Chechen fighters. By 3 September the Wall Street Journal was quoting a senior diplomat saying: “The rebels are in de facto control of Chechnya’. ‘There are no victors’, Askhadov had said, after signing the deal, mindful of the need to get it accepted in Russia. Nevertheless, one of Lebed’s avowed rivals for the presidency – Moscow’s Mayor, Yuri Luzhkov – described it as no less than capitulation.
There are still ‘hawks’ in Yeltsin’s administration. The interior minister, Anatoly Kulikov, in spite of, or maybe because of Lebed’s demand that he be removed, stays in his post. The commander of Russian forces in Chechnya, Tichimorov [Tikhomirov?], has threatened to scupper the deal by halting troop withdrawals. But their stars must inevitably wane if the peace process continues. On the other hand, there should be no illusions that Lebed, an ex-general, has suddenly become a pacifist! He simply reflects a considerable body of the army who were never keen to be involved in what they see as a messy internal affair best left to the interior ministry (which in large part is what happened). They prefer a settlement now in order to get on with fashioning a modern, effective, smaller but well-equipped professional army. To this end they are competing fiercely for allocations from the federal budget with the ‘parallel army’ of the interior ministry.
“The UNHCR estimates that at least half a million people have fled their homes in Chechnya”
Is it possible that these ‘parallel’ forces left in Chechnya in a ‘policing’ role could be beefed up to rival those of the Chechen separatists? Are Moscow’s ‘puppets’, as Lebed labelled Doku Zavgayev and his provisional Chechen government, capable of securing Russian rule in the ‘province’? Technically they were elected by the Chechen people (though in a rigged vote) but now they have been unceremoniously side-lined by the Lebed/Maskhadov deal.
Even before the end of August, Russian prime minister, Chernomyrdin was ‘extremely concerned’ that the Chechen rebels were already forming executive bodies in some regions and threatening to prosecute “countrymen who had collaborated with the Russians”. (Financial Times, 30 August). Zavgayev is said to be recruiting additional forces to take up arms against the deal.
Predictably, the ‘communists’ have joined other nationalists in denouncing Lebed’s deal for betraying those who stood up to Chechen ‘bandits’ and for jeopardising Russia’s territorial integrity. Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, successor to the dead Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, has indeed declared: ‘Our demands for autonomy remain unchanged’. Does this mean total independence or the ‘autonomy’ Russian imperialism has in mind – that which leaves the oil pipelines, refineries and other strategic objects in Chechnya firmly under its control. Even if the leaders can be persuaded, it is another matter to convince hardened fighters on the ground to lay down arms for anything less than a complete break with Moscow.
The UNHCR estimates that at least half a million people have fled their homes in Chechnya. General Lebed, with access to information that contradicts official figures of around 40,000 dead, claims it is nearer 80,000. Huge unsettled scores remain to be avenged. In the long run, only the elimination of the region’s huge economic and social problems, through the eradication of capitalism and bureaucratism, will bring a lasting peace. Honouring the right of all nations to self-determination, with democratically elected governments based on the common ownership of all assets through the state, could begin to overcome the basic difficulties. Socialist and co-operative principles would allow for the building of a voluntary federation of the peoples of this area, linking up with a socialist Russia bereft of all predatory intentions.
Clare Doyle
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